The Intervention Probability Curve: Modeling the Practical Application of Threshold-Guided Decision-Making, Evaluated in Lung, Prostate, and Ovarian Cancers.


Diagnostic prediction models are useful guides when considering lesions suspicious for cancer, as they provide a quantitative estimate of the probability that a lesion is malignant. However, the decision to intervene ultimately rests on patient and physician preferences. The appropriate intervention in many clinical situations is typically defined by clinically relevant, actionable subgroups based upon the probability of malignancy. However, the "all-or-nothing" approach of threshold-based decisions is in practice incorrect.